- The US Dollar halts decline against most major peers and finds support on Wednesday.
- ADP suprises markets with an upbeat 183,000 print against 150,000 expected.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) falls below 108.00 and tests major support at 107.35.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is finding some support in an otherwise downbeat trading session on Wednesday ahead of the US Purchase Managers Index (PMI) releases from both S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Tensions in markets over the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs are unwinding now that levies on Mexico and Canada slapped over the weekend have been paused. This coincides with some US Dollar (USD) risk premium easing this Wednesday while Chinese traders head back to their desks after the Chinese New Year, with a surge in trading volumes.
As mentioned above, the economic data calendar shows a bulk of PMI releases on Wednesday. In Europe, the aggregate Eurozone, German, French, and Spanish PMI data have already been released earlier in the day, with final readings for January falling roughly in line to below their preliminary readings. In the US, S&P Global is set to release its reading in the early American session, with the ISM data specifically for the Services sector set to be issued just minutes thereafter.
Daily digest market movers: ADP comes in as suprise
- The ADP Employment Change for the private sector came in as a surprise increase to 183,000, beating the 150,000 expected new jobs in January compared to 122,000 previously.
- At 14:45 GMT, S&P Global will release its final reading for the Services and Composite PMI for January. No changes are expected from preliminary readings, with Services standing at 52.8 and the Composite at 52.4.
- At 15:00 GMT, the ISM will release its January reading for the Services sector:
- Services PMI is expected to tick up to 54.3 from 54.1 in December.
- The Prices Paid component has no forecast and was at 64.4 in the previous release.
- At 18:00 GMT, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee delivers a speech on the current economy at the Chicago Fed’s 31st Annual Automotive Insights Symposium, held at the Bank’s Detroit Branch.
- Near 20:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman delivers a speech on Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation at the 2025 Kansas Bankers Association Harold A. Stones Government Relations Conference.
- Equities are in deep red numbers, with Chinese traders returning to markets after the Chinese New Year holidays and having a lot to catch up with. Where losses in Europe are still contained, US futures are seeing the Nasdaq down by 1%.
- The CME FedWatch tool projects an 83.5% chance of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the next meeting on March 19.
- The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.446%, a fresh yearly low.
- Gold hits another fresh all-time high above $2,875, with investors fleeing equities and bonds, heading into bullion.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Difficult reading
The US Dollar Index (DXY) extends correction and dives lower on Wednesday. Traders and investors are heading to safe havens like Gold and the Swiss Franc (CHF). For once, the Greenback is not part of the rescue party, as risk-premium gained at the beginning of the week after President Trump slapped Mexico and Canada with tariffs over the weekend is starting to ease, no longer supporting an elevated US Dollar.
On the upside, the first barrier at 109.30 (July 14, 2022, high and rising trendline) was briefly surpassed but did not hold on Monday. Once that level is reclaimed, the next level to hit before advancing further remains at 110.79 (September 7, 2022, high).
On the downside, the October 3, 2023, high at 107.35 acts is trying to hold support and withstand the selling pressure this Wednesday. For now, that looks to be holding, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has some room for the downside. Hence, look for 106.52 or even 105.89 as better levels.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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