- The US Dollar off the lows for this Friday with markets concerned on France’s budget talks.
- French budget talks are pushing the Euro higher, weighing on the US Dollar Index
- The US Dollar Index falls below 106.00 and tests the next support level for a rebound.
The US Dollar (USD) adds another tranche to its fade from earlier this week, this time on the back of concerns over Europe, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extending this week’s decline and falling below the 106.00 level.
France’s budget talks are not going well, with Prime Minister Michel Barnier having to consent to too many demands from the far-right National Rally from Marine Le Pen. The budget concerns are sending French yields higher, to levels matching weaker European peripheral countries such as Greece, fueling a stronger Euro over the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, US financial markets will close early on Friday after Thanksgiving Day. US equity futures are trading flat while the US bond market opens up under thin liquidity.
Daily digest market movers: Le Pen could topple French government Monday
- Far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who holds outsize leverage in France’s split parliament, gave Prime Minister Michel Barnier until Monday to kneel to her budget demands before she decides whether to topple the government, Bloomberg reports.
- Prime Minister Barnier already agreed to abandon plans to raise taxes on electricity on Thursday, Reuters reports.
- Equities are set to close off this Friday with some slim gains for both Europe and the US despite thin liquidity this Black Friday.
- The CME FedWatch Tool is pricing in another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the December 18 meeting by 66.3%. A 33.7% chance is for rates to remain unchanged. The Fed Minutes have helped the rate cut odds for December to move higher.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 4.21%, falling to this week’s low at the start of this Friday after being closed on Thursday.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Monday turmoil in Europe
The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces some more selling pressure on Friday, with one of its main components, the Euro, weighing the Index down. With the uprising in French yields and spreads, the rate gap between the US and Europe gets narrower, with the Euro catching up with the US Dollar. Pivotal support levels need to be identified, with the “Trump trade” set to pick up soon again as President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.
With this week’s decline in the DXY, former support levels have now turned into resistance. On the upside, 106.52 (April 16 high) is the first level to watch. Should the Dollar bulls reclaim that level, 107.00 (round level) and 107.35 (October 3, 2023, high) are back on target for a retest.
If the DXY correction continues, the pivotal level at 105.53 (April 11 high) comes into play on Friday as the last man standing before heading into the 104-region. Should the DXY fall all the way towards 104.00, the big figure and the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 104.03 should catch any falling knife formation.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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