Sad Weekend For Lofty Priced, Original Sci-Fi Fare With ‘Mickey 17’ Opening To $19M+, But Keep This In Mind… – Box Office

SUNDAY AM WRITETHRU: Warner Bros and Plan B Entertainment’s Mickey 17 is being called at a $19.1M domestic, $43.6M global opening this morning (pic’s running worldwide tally is $53.3M) and that unfortunately isn’t going to cut it profit wise for this $118M original sci-fi production plus P&A which Warner Bros. decided to take a swing on with multi-Parasite Oscar winner Bong Joon Ho.

But that’s from a motion picture studio standard of P&L measurement.

Here’s what’s frustrating for those at Warner shepherding the film and those producing it.

At a time when movie executives are trying to keep cinema alive with auteur driven, genre defying fare, Netflix has released their $320M Russo Brothers directed sci-fi robot original family film Electric State in two theaters this weekend with 24 showtimes – iPic Westwood and iPic Fulton Market with an average ticket price of $19.35. The grosses for Electric State will go unreported, and the global eyeballs on Netflix’s service using their own methodology for viewership (not a third-party) will celebrate that movie as a win. Electric State, which is more of a studio accountant’s nightmare, won’t be written up as a flop like Mickey 17. WTF?!

Make no mistake, Mickey 17 is losing money in its first cycle, and the upcoming expensive auteurish gambles at Warner Bros has me worried, but in the end, many will likely remember Mickey 17 more for having some sort of impact on the culture than Electric State. Just because that’s how it goes when it comes down to the legacy of movies in cinemas vs. home TV movies.

In the same breath, it’s hard to tap dance on Warner Bros. for Mickey 17 as they’re bound to make more money than Electric State years down the road. The 21st century mind is still confused how streamers make money off $300M-plus features.

Why didn’t Mickey 17 work? Mickey 17 is not Parasite. Parasite was a clevery twisty noirish social commentary that had audences championing for those home invaders, not those who are the victims of the home invasion. Mickey 17 is Byzantine and cold in its execution. That’s why it isn’t bringing in a bigger audience. It’s no Gravity (which opened to $55.7M) also a Warner Bros movie, which pulled in women with Sandra Bullock and George Clooney, and had a lot of heart in it, working both as a popcorn and arthouse epic.

The only solution here for a motion picture studio is that when they’re making original fresh IP, don’t spend a penny north of $100M. Just don’t. If Brady Corbet can make his three-hour The Brutalist for a net of under $10M (gross somewhere in the teens), that’s a film financial model all studios should strive for. (Domain has a 10% co-finance stake in Mickey 17). Global P&A is figured around $80M for Mickey 17; Warners did push this movie with a spot during the NFL playoff game. The movie was shot two years ago, and the release date was pushed by roughly a year. Mickey 17 was suppose to come out on March 29, 2024. The explanation for that? Bong was working with studio execs to get that trailer right.

There’s an argument to be made that the push for Mickey 17 could have been louder, particularly with all the release date changes. A studio needs to spend more whenever they hop scotch a film around the calendar. There were reports that when the first trailer hit for Mickey 17, it wasn’t really a stone sending ripples in a pond. But that’s because the movie isn’t established IP. The campaign was tweaked to make Robert Pattinson‘s protag more relatable in an attempt to expand the audience to women and young men, demos which aren’t the target for sci-fi. However, a finger can be wagged at Warners for not executing a marketing stunt soon after that lackluster first trailer in the five months between the second in order to make-up that delta of awareness. Mickey 17 also skipped fanboy opps such as San Diego and NYC Comic-Con.

This opening for Mickey 17 is unfortunately where original sci-fi has lived in recent years with 20th Century Studios/New Regency’s The Creator ($14M; granted impacted by the strikes) and Ad Astra ($19M), which Mickey 17 feels very close to in its deep space chill drama; that Brad Pitt feature getting a B- CinemaScore. Warners has been in this asteroid field before: Remember the $200M Wachowski siblings movie Jupiter Ascending? That was significantly more red ink on that movie which opened to $18.3M domestic. Gotta make sci-fi fun and emotional to work and break out, and you gotta control costs which is easier said than done.

More under the hood on Mickey 17: 65% guys showed up with the largest demo being 25-34 at 38% and a third of the audience over 35. Diversity demos were 47% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, notable 13% Asian American, 10% Black and 5% Native American. IMAX and PLF are accounting for big business on the movie with 48% of the weekend so far. Imax rang up $3M stateside or 16% of the weekend. The movie is playing in the West and the NorthEast which is where auteur original sci-fi plays. It’s an LA and NYC film. AMC’s Lincoln Square is the highest grossing venue with around $124K through Saturday. Some good news out of all of this? Mickey 17 was Bong Joon Ho’s biggest opening ever of his career in 59 markets including the U.S.

There are more pricey auteur gambles at Warners ahead with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners at Easter, Paul Thomas Anderson’s untitled $140M epic inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, and Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride. That puts a lot of pressure on Legendary’s Minecraft and DC’s Superman to make up any red ink spilled by those titles. No matter how much money or jobs are lost, it’s the cinematic theatrical releases which will survive time.

Comscore calcuated the whole weekend at $56M. It’s the tenth weekend of the year. A year ago, Kung Fu Panda 4 opened to $58.3M, and led a marketplace that counted $136.1M, hence this weekend was -59% off from that. The box office year of Jan. 1 – March 9 at $1.15 billion remains 1.28% ahead of the same period in 2024.

Chart updating, we’re at SXSW…there’s a lot going on.

1.) Mickey 17 (WB) 3,807 theaters, Fri $7.7M Sat $6.7M Sun $4.7M 3-day $19.1M/Wk 1

2.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 3,480 (-320) theaters, Fri $2.1M (-41%), 3-day $8.5M (-43%), Total $176.5M/Wk 4

3.) Last Breath (Foc) 3,090 theaters (+72) Fri $1.16M (-62%), 3-day $4M (-49%), Total $14.4M/Wk 2

4.) The Monkey (NEON) 2,955 (-272) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-39%), 3-day $3.9M (-39%), Total $31M/Wk 3

5.) Paddington in Peru (Sony) 3,085 (-620) theaters, Fri $900K 3-day $3.85M (-16%), Total $36.9M/Wk 4

6.) Dog Man (Uni) 2,753 (-302) theaters, Fri $750K (-13%), 3-day $3.3M (-22%), Total $88.5M/Wk 6

7.) Anora (NEON) 1,938 (+1130) theaters, Fri $540K, 3-day $1.75M (+554%), Total $18.3M/Wk 21

8.) Mufasa (Dis) 1,460 (-245) theaters, Fri $371K, 3-day $1.6M (-19%), Total $250.3M/Wk 12

9.) Rule Breakers (Angel), 2044 theaters, Fri $600K, 3-day $1.3M/Wk 1

10.) In The Lost Lands (Vert) 1,370 theaters, Fri $380K, 3-day $940K/Wk 1

FRIDAY AM: Warner Bros and Plan B Entertainment’s Mickey 17 did $2.5 million in box office previews Thursday night at 3,200 locations. Showtimes began at 3 p.m. for the sci-fi movie adapted and directed by Bong Joon Ho.

Tracking has the pic hoping to do around $20M. The global outlook as we told you is around $45M. It’s an expensive movie given that it’s original sci-fi, with an initial greenlight of $118M before P&A.

How that stacks up to other sci-fi movies: Mickey 17‘s previews are higher than that of Plan B’s other sci-fi movie Ad Astra from pre-Covid September 2019, which did $1.5M on its way to a $19M opening, a final domestic of $50M and $127.4M worldwide. That astronaut movie starring Brad Pitt cost $100M after reshoots. Mickey 17′s previews are also above the $1.45M in previews made by Denis Villeneuve’s Arrival in November 2016, leading to a $24M opening. Yet, it’s below the $3.5M made by Villeneuve’s Blade Runner 2049, which went on to a $32.7M opening.

PostTrak exits last night for Mickey 17 were very good at 4 stars and a 63% definite recommend. Always note, the fans are out first on a Thursday, in this case the Robert Pattinson and Bong followers.

Rotten Tomatoes critics score is at 80% certified fresh, and audience score is at 81%. Hopefully that will give the latest from the multi-Oscar-winning Parasite filmmaker a lift this weekend.

The rest of the week was as follows:

1.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 3,800 theaters, Thur $920K (-10% from Wednesday), Wk $19.3M, Total $168M/Wk 3

2.) Last Breath (Foc) 3,018 theaters, Thur $511k (-8%), Wk $10.4M/Wk 1

3.) The Monkey (Neon) 3,227 theaters, Thur $520K (-8%) Wk $8.8M/Total $27.1M/Wk 2

4.) Paddington in Peru (Sony) 3,705 theaters, Thur $421K (-3%), Wk $6.2M, Total $33.1M/Wk 3

5.) Dog Man (Uni/DWA) 3,055 theaters, Thur $288K (+3%), Wk $5.4M, Total $85.2M/Wk 5