Gold remains depressed below $2,900; bears lack conviction amid tariff jitters

• Gold price ticks lower on Tuesday amid bets that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer.
• A modest USD uptick further contributes to the mildly offered tone around the XAU/USD. 
• Tariffs jitters and global trade war fears could lend support to the safe-haven precious metal. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) retains its negative bias below the $2,900 mark heading into the European session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through selling amid rising trade tensions. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers amid expectations that US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs would reignite inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the non-yielding yellow metal. 

Meanwhile, concerns about the economic fallout from Trump’s protectionist policies, a global trade war, and geopolitical risks temper investors’ appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets and could offer some support to the safe-haven Gold price. Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday before placing fresh directional bets around the XAU/USD. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls remain on the sidelines; trade war fears help limit losses

• Investors remain worried that US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs would increase price pressures and allow the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish stance, prompting some selling around the Gold price on Tuesday. 
• Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are taking effect this Tuesday, along with a new 10% levy on Chinese goods. Trump also said that reciprocal tariffs would take effect on April 2 on countries that impose duties on US products.
• Canada confirmed that it will impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports. China’s Commerce Ministry announced on Tuesday that it will slap additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key farm products from the US. 
• This raises the risk of a global trade war and weighs on investors’ sentiment, which should act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal and help limit any deeper losses amid a bearish tone surrounding the US Dollar. 
• The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.3 in February from 50.9 in the previous month, while the Prices Paid Index jumped to a nearly three-year high amid worries about duties on imports. 
• This comes on top of worries that Trump’s trade tariffs would undermine consumer spending and fuel concerns about the outlook for the world’s largest economy. This could further lend support to the XAU/USD pair. 
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s meeting with Trump ended in disaster on Friday. Furthermore, a White House official confirmed that the US has paused military aid to Ukraine, adding to the uncertainty in markets.
• The market focus will remain glued to the release of the US monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The crucial data would influence the USD and the yellow metal. 

Gold price is likely to attract some dip-buyers and find decent support near the $2,860 region

From a technical perspective, failure ahead of the $2,900 mark warrants some caution for bullish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been losing traction – are holding in positive territory and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buyers near the $2,860 immediate support. This is followed by the multi-week low, around the $2,833-2,832 region touched last Friday, below which the Gold price could accelerate the fall further towards the $2,800 round figure.

On the flip side, bulls might wait for sustained strength and acceptance back above the $2,900 mark before placing fresh bets. The subsequent move up could lift the Gold price to the $2,934 intermediate hurdle en route to the record high, around the $2,956 region touched last Monday.