EUR/USD struggles amid fears of potential US-Eurozone trade war

• EUR/USD faces pressure while reclaiming 1.1000 as investors await the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers to discuss measures against Trump’s tariffs.
• Trump threatened to impose additional 50% tariffs on China for taking countermeasures against reciprocal levies announced last week.
• The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates in June.

EUR/USD trades higher in Tuesday’s European trading session but struggles to reclaim the psychological figure of 1.1000. The major currency pair tussles for more upside as the outlook of the Euro (EUR) is uncertain, with investors become increasingly concerned that countermeasures by the European Union (EU) in the face of reciprocal tariffs by Donald Trump could lead to a trade war between regions situated on the opposite sides of the Atlantic.

Finance ministers of all Euro area countries are scheduled to meet in Warsaw on Friday to discuss measures to contain the likely consequences of tariffs imposed by the US. Ahead of the meeting, Poland Finance Minister Andrzej Domański said, “Disrupted supply chains and rising costs for companies will affect European growth ratios and currencies.” He added that such a scenario will have “adverse social consequences” and “increasing prices for consumers”, leaving citizens more vulnerable, Reuters report.

On Monday, European Union trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič also stated that our continent has offered to the US “zero-for-zero tariffs” for “cars and all industrial goods”. Investors considered the statement positive for the Euro as a cooperative deal would be prosperous for the Eurozone.

Additionally, escalating European Central Bank (ECB) dovish bets have also put some pressure on the Euro. Some ECB officials, including Bank of Italy Governor Piero Cipollone, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Governor of Bank of Greece Yannis Stournaras, have all supported further policy easing. Stournaras said last week that US tariffs will not be an “obstacle to April rate cut” as the inflation path remains “unchanged”. He guided that US tariffs will “negatively impact” the Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate by “0.3%-0.4%” in the first year.

During European trading hours, Stournaras said that the monetary policy needs to be less “restrictive in 2025”. However, he warned of the possibility that the inflation rise might “delay the normalisation of monetary policy”.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains as the US Dollar’s expense

• EUR/USD gains at the expense of the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides to near 103.00. The Greenback is under pressure in the aftermath of the reciprocal tariff announcement by United States (US) President Donald Trump last week. He swept new levies in addition to a 10% universal baseline on Wednesday in an attempt to fix trade imbalances and ‘make America great again.’
• Financial market participants expect that the new suite of Trump tariffs and likely countermeasures by US trading partners could lead to an economic recession. On Monday, Trump threatened to hike import duty on China by 50% if the country doesn’t withdraw its retaliatory response of 34% reciprocal tariffs on US goods already announced last Friday and coming into effect this Thursday.
• Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce warned that the US president’s new tariff threats were “a mistake on top of a mistake” and China will “fight to the end” to protect its interest.
• This has also led to traders raising bets supporting an interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the June policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are confident that the central bank will cut its key borrowing rates in June.
• Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD struggles to reclaim 1.1000

EUR/USD struggles to break above 1.1000 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair rebounded from the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on Monday, which trades around 1.0883. 

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds the 60.00 level, suggesting that the bullish momentum is intact.

Looking down, the March 31 high of 1.0850 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the September 25 high of 1.1214 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.