Does ‘Sinners’ Have A Prayer At Easter Weekend Box Office? – Preview

As Holy week comes to a close, Warner Bros‘ $90M+ net gamble, Sinners, might find some salvation at the box office, that is in U.S./Canada with a potential $40M+ opening.

Note that as far as comps go, Jordan Peele’s sci-fi Nope debuted to $44.3M and legged out to $123.2M domestic. The difference is that Sinners stars quite the leading man in Michael B. Jordan, in his fifth reteam with Ryan Coogler in the director’s chair. Another difference is the budget before P&A, Sinners costing at least 32% more than Nope‘s net $68M. Sinners was shot in New Orleans with Louisiana film tax credits. Domain in a slate deal with Warners covered 10% of the budget. Both Sinners and Nope were R-rated, with the former at 2 hours and 17 minutes being seven minutes longer than the latter.

Also written and produced by Coogler, Sinners follows bootlegging and former soldier twin brothers, Smoke and Stack (Jordan), who return to their Mississippi hometown to open a juke joint in 1932. They do so with success, however, all hell breaks loose by the middle of the night.

Previews stateside start at 3PM Thursday. Sinners will have access to Imax 70MM, Imax digital, 70MM, Dolby, PLFs and motion seat auditoriums. First choice is best with guys under 25, followed by men over 25. Both those figures are ahead of Nope and not far from Peele’s Us ($71.1M, during a pre-Covid 2019).

Overseas is a bit tricky on Sinners, with an overall $60M global outlook. Sinners will play on 16,600 global screens in 71 offshore territories including France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and the UK.

Thanks to curated film reviews receiving an early break, the Rotten Tomatoes’ critics score now sits at 99% fresh. It was at 100% for a bit. What does that mean? Potential crossover audience beyond the period vampire movie’s core Black audience with auteur fans (those who flock to the opening weekends of Christopher Nolan, Martin Scorsese, Robert Eggers’ movies) taking interest as well as upscale metro moviegoers. While tracking projections eased to $35M recently, we’re hearing a last-minute marketing push has triggered Sinners presales ahead of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Sinners will open to $56.5M.

Clearly working in the movie’s favor –as well as for Warner Bros’ own A Minecraft Movie— is Good Friday, a big moviegoing day, thanks to 72% K-12 schools out and close to a third of all colleges on break.

What’s clear is that Warner Bros will be able to own the weekend, with two movies that could conceivably do north of $40M apiece. The Legendary co-production of A Minecraft Movie could ease -40% in weekend 3 for a $47M take; the Jack Black-Jason Momoa movie only $16.2M away from cracking the $300 mark. While Warners is no stranger to owning the Easter holiday frame with such movies as Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166M, still the holiday’s all-time opening record), last year’s Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($80M), Ready Player One, Godzilla v. Kong and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Clash of the Titans, the last time the Burbank, CA lot double led the Easter frame was 2019 with another horror play, The Curse of La Llorona ($26.3M) in No. 1 and the third weekend of Shazam! in second place ($16.4M).